Are Deadly Heat Waves Normal Because of Climate Change?

Currently, the Earth’s average temperature is rising, increasing the risk of deadly heatwaves. By the year 2100, that number will be nearly 50 percent higher. An estimated 48% of the world’s population will be at risk, and 74% will experience more than 20 days of deadly heat annually. The highest risk for fatal heat events will occur in the equatorial zone. Currently, one-third of the world’s population lives in tropical regions.

Heatwaves are particularly dangerous in developing countries, such as India and Pakistan. The number of deadly heat waves is increasing in both countries, and this trend will increase as greenhouse gases continue to build up.

In recent years, the average length of heat waves has increased. By 2050, the United States could experience seventy percent more days with temperatures above 90 degrees F. That would put a great deal of strain on the lives of more than half of the population. If the current trend of increased heat waves continues, the world will face even more significant risks of extreme heat events. This is because of the accumulation of long-lived heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere.

The early-season heatwaves can be particularly dangerous because people are less acclimated to the heat during early spring. Often, these days are too early, so they have no cooling infrastructure in place. This means people are not aware of the dangers of excessive heat until it’s too late. But the heatwave is likely to last for at least five days. Depending on the blockage of a high-pressure system, these heatwaves can last for even longer.

In India, these waves are increasingly common. They’re becoming more frequent and intense. Heatwaves in this region are threatening the lives of millions of people, many of whom don’t have basic protections. They’re forced to work outside in the blazing sun, sacrificing much-needed income. The children go to school in uncooled school buses and come home to poorly-insulated homes. The majority of the region does not have access to air conditioning.

Researchers say that dangerous heat waves are more common than previously thought. The researchers studied the data from 1,949 lethal heat waves from 164 cities across 36 countries. They then identified the global threshold at which heat-related illnesses become life-threatening. The threshold has increased steadily since the 1980s. It remains unclear whether the threshold for deadly heatwaves has been crossed. And if so, what are the resulting implications for our health?